{"id":8274,"date":"2024-10-01T17:28:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T17:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/translash.org\/?p=8274"},"modified":"2025-06-27T18:11:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T18:11:18","slug":"trans-guide-to-understanding-2022-midterm-election-results-2","status":"publish","type":"resource","link":"https:\/\/translash.org\/resources\/trans-guide-to-understanding-2022-midterm-election-results-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Trans Guide To Understanding 2022 Midterm Election Results"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It\u2019s easy for those of us in blue and purple states to look at Texas and Florida and write them off, but many of our trans siblings and their families will still be living in those places after the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the last two years, conservative politicians and their right-wing media counterparts have developed a\u00a0near obsession<\/a>\u00a0with transgender issues, especially pertaining to trans kids. For these politicians, spreading harmful beliefs and inciting fear of trans people is an attempt to earn the votes of the valuable suburban voters the Republican party has failed to win in the last couple of elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Tuesday\u2019s midterms proved their divisive strategy to\u00a0be largely fruitless<\/a>. Instead of the expected \u201cred wave\u201d of Republicans winning back control of the US Senate and House of Representatives, the GOP turned in a\u00a0historically pathetic showing<\/a>\u00a0for a midterm election\u00a0winning the House<\/a>\u00a0but\u00a0losing the Senate<\/a>. The disappointing result came in large part due to the party\u2019s obsession with trans issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ever since marriage equality\u00a0became law of the land<\/a>\u00a0in 2015, the conservative movement has shifted its focus to marginalizing trans people under the law starting with the wave of bathroom bills in 2016 that mostly fell flat. The only state to enact a bathroom ban, North Carolina, saw its governor, Republican Pat McCrory,\u00a0get run out of office<\/a>\u00a0even in 2016\u2019s red wave election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similar attempts at banning trans students from school bathrooms failed in conservative legislatures in 2018 and 2020. Things seemed to have shifted in Republicans\u2019 favor in 2021, as Glenn Youngkin\u00a0rode a wave of parental frustration<\/a>\u00a0over covid restrictions and alleged critical race and gender theory teachings in schools to a victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, conservatives thought they had found their message for winning over purple-state suburbanites, and they leaned into it hard. By 2022, 18 states passed laws banning trans girls from girls\u2019 school sports, and three states passed bans on transition care for trans youth. In other states, conservative candidates and PACs poured millions into scare-mongering ads claiming Democrats were trying to \u201ctrans your kids,\u201d or wanted schools to turn kids transgender. The messaging was consistent from local school board elections all the way up to US Senate campaigns. That messaging fell mostly flat on Tuesday, Nov. 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were, of course, exceptions. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, both of whom took over-the-top executive actions to persecute trans youth and their families, both comfortably won re-election. Additionally, 24 of the 30 DeSantis-endorsed candidates for Florida school boards won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In more moderate states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine, conservative candidates campaigned heavily on parental rights, with the implication of strongly opposing trans rights for youth. Each failed in winnable races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it\u2019s difficult to tally results for local school board races, as they are often non-partisan races, it doesn\u2019t appear that a majority of openly trans-hostile candidates swept into power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In past elections, Democrats have been quick to blame trans people and our political existence for Democratic losses. An alleged focus on trans people was\u00a0blamed for Hillary Clinton\u2019s loss<\/a>\u00a0in 2016, as well as moderate Democratic candidate losses in both 2018 and 2020. If the party had suffered heavy losses in this year\u2019s midterms, trans people would likely have been very high on the Democratic blame list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, results went the other way. Despite\u00a0unhappiness with President Joe Biden\u2019s first two years<\/a>, voters judged Republican candidates to be too extreme. Perhaps constant talk about trans kids\u2019 genitals, or getting angry over drag queens was a bit over the top for suburban moms who like watching RuPaul\u2019s Drag Race every week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Never before has a national election had such a focus on trans issues. Many political experts were certain that Republicans had a winning anti-trans message, but even with Joe Biden\u2019s unpopularity, Republican gains came largely due to the creation of newly gerrymandered conservative districts, not a convincing conservative message.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Republican party will doubtless run an autopsy for how it failed so spectacularly, but it remains to be seen what conclusions will be drawn. There\u2019s a great deal of conservative activist fundraising and media narratives at stake should the party abandon its hardline on trans existence. Anti-trans sentiment still runs high within the party base, and hardliners on the issue found a lot of success appealing to the party base with transphobic messaging during the primary season, only to see it fail in the general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be interesting to keep an eye on how conservatives find a balance that feeds red meat to a trans-obsessed conservative party base without turning off moderates. There\u2019s even a possibility that party leaders see Abbott and DeSantis\u2019 success and decide they need to adopt an even more transphobic approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s easy for those of us in blue and purple states to look at Texas and Florida and write them off, but many of our trans siblings and their families will still be living in those places after the election. They will have no way to escape the wrath of the conservatives in power. As a trans community, we should be looking for ways to materially support those trapped under transphobic administrations, and, if possible, keep them safe from government persecution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s easy for those of us in blue and purple states to look at Texas and Florida and write them off, but many of our trans siblings and their families will still be living in those places after the election. 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